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Post by buzzlightyear on Jul 30, 2020 18:54:02 GMT -6
I am super impressed with your guys true belief that Trojan football will actually be played this fall. Regardless of the COVID thing, the amount of extra money that would be lost will kill it. Begrudgingly agree. Say it ain't so. LINUS WAS RIGHT THE GREAT PUMPKIN SHALL ARISE AND TROY FOOTBALL SHALL SEE THE FIELD AND SEIZE THE DAY!!!! But the great line from “Angels in the outfield” comes to mind: ......It could happen..... Maybe...
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Post by buzzlightyear on Aug 1, 2020 6:07:54 GMT -6
Bubba mentioned still high days of admissions for covid on the 29th. I guess it was June or so when thought we would be coming out of this hell chute by Aug 15 and better or not to bad by Sept 1. Still believe that is approximately correct but my fear for other places like Midwest is that has actually not really arrived yet for their own 6-7 weeks of hell. The point is most of the South is on the earlier curve and mid Sept should be doable with some precautions and later will be a bit better. However, there will be a small background of cases and smoldering issues with this thru out this entire season. The Big 10 and Big 12 and the like are really going to be dealing with this in a few weeks and that will hinder that part of football regionally but we in the South (particularly Florida) have almost burnt thru it. We all need some normality and I hope there will be some they College football
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Post by Bubba the Trojan on Aug 1, 2020 15:02:49 GMT -6
Buzz, I have some questions for you, but first let me set them up. As you know, in March and April when we were getting overrun with Covid patients in Dothan, a HUGE majority of those patients were coming from SW Georgia. We are once again getting overrun in Dothan, but this time a HUGE majority of our patients are from Houston, Henry, Dale, and Geneva counties (Geneva County didn't have a single positive patient until weeks into the first surge and I know because one of my best buddies lives there and he kept jokingly pointing that out) with almost none coming from SW Georgia. Why do you think this is? Do you think each area will see a surge, will see this virus move through and then move on? If so, why is that? The data on antibody testing doesn't indicate enough people have antibodies for herd immunity to be present. I don't know enough about epidemiology to understand what's going on. In late May and June, I was very optimistic we would play football this fall, at this point, not so much. I hope I'm wrong and you're right, but it doesn't feel that way on August 1.
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Post by buzzlightyear on Aug 1, 2020 16:53:09 GMT -6
Actually, it is just my opinion but I have watched (my wife says obsessed). However with that said once an area reaches greater than 20-30 per 100k it seems to be the line where they go ahead and escalate to extraordinary numbers. New York and Dougherty county did not shut down (as everyone did) till it was too late. That mitigation causes almost all areas to squash the sharing of covid. It worked but when opening back up the spread with enough background cases got the numbers back up. High density populations tend to take 7 week escalation and beginning to de-escalating . Smaller populations without rigid mask, social distancing etc Have that go thru to”coming out of the hell chute around 6 weeks. Thus why when we in Jackson County started around 4th of July the predicted August 15th. Smaller population can be screwed more if nursing home outbreaks etc. Essentially a small fire was almost put out and started back up by being fed out of South Florida (Dade) that started there big swing around June 26th. There will always be the lag with vent patient but once it burns thru it is then just back ground cases with few deaths per say: if New York would continue the rate (there will always be a small reservoir of patients) they would have about 2400-2500 deaths attributed to covid per year. Dougherty county new numbers but not too bad looks like a greater Proportion of Caucasian patients this time where as around 75-80% were African American the first swell in April. Essentially they were back fed the fire as it cane up the peninsula if Florida just like you guys. The problem with this is now with massive testing going on the sheer numbers will be higher than if tested at the level we were testing even a month ago. However, these states like OKLAHOMA that are only around 900 per 100k and deaths at around 13 per 100k they am will eventually get their surge and unfortunately it will probably coincide with the beginning of the usual winter time viral increases. For you guys and us just South if the border we may be seeing the light at the end of an inevitable tunnel. Keep your eye on Alachua county Florida. Can a community that has high by in to masks etc keep the level only smoldering and then leave a larger % vulnerable for a flair? They have been able to keep it right around that 25-30 per 100k. Flattening but really prolonging the course.
What does this have to do with football. Most of the South is having their burn thru. It will be better soon for most of us in the South and we may even have some football. I still thank God for protecting almost all kids. Not all but if your child is a regular ole child (using hot spot florida numbers) the chance of not being hospitalized is 99.99992% and to not die is 99.9999991% chance. These are for 0-14 years of age and the chances to be killed by car accident or drowning for that age is 30 times higher over a similar 6 month period. My heart still goes out to the Lymen family who did lose an apparent heathy 9 year old.
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Post by buzzlightyear on Aug 1, 2020 20:05:19 GMT -6
As to why in spite of the antibody tests it is due to T cell
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Post by buzzlightyear on Aug 2, 2020 8:42:45 GMT -6
Using latest New York City numbers rolling average total cases for a year now at approximately 111,000 cases and 900 deaths (if same rate every day) out of a population of 8.2 million or an approximate a 1% chance of getting the disease and only one hundredth of 1% chance of dying from it. So if you are under you really could go to football and or basketball etc. there is definitely hope and most of not all are going to have to go thru that rough time to get to where New York City is currently.
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Post by Bubba the Trojan on Aug 2, 2020 12:52:40 GMT -6
My son was telling me yesterday that he heard an interview with an epidemiologist who was discussing exactly what we just discussed. He (epidemiologist) said several things that make sense.
1) The spike on the Covid corona virus that is used by the virus for cell attachment is unique in that it is "new" but is similar to the spikes on other corona viruses that have been around for ages (think cold causing rhino virus, some strains of flu, etc). 2) Because the covid corona is novel "new" there was no direct immunity in the population to it. HOWEVER, because its attachment spike is similar to other corona virus particles, the T cells recognize it as similar and "activate" the B cells and macrophages and other immune responses to attack the covid. 3) This is an important factor in why we see the virus running rampant through the elder population but not kids or younger adults. Because of the constant exposure kids, and subsequently their parents, have to these other corona viruses at school, day care, playgrounds, etc, these individuals have been exposed to those corona viruses that are similar to covid and therefore have the immune memory used by the T cells to mediate an immune response. Older folks were not around and/or had kids that progressed through the school and growing years before that similar virus was making its rounds. 4) Because of #3, there is a segment (generally older) that will have to develop immunity, while those who are younger can rely on immune memory. This explains why there is a 6-8 week, almost unmanageable surge in cases followed by an almost (statistically speaking) no infections.
If all of the above is true, and it makes sense to me, my limited knowledge of immunology not withstanding, there is indeed optimism that by mid September, if not before, we will see football in Troy this season.
I did manage to get this comment back to TROY football discussion, it just took me a while to do so😂
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